Much has been written about the sequence of tractates in each mishnaic order. Perhaps most famously, Rambam (in his introduction to Commentary on Mishnayos) explained the position of each tractate based on specific reasons, such as order of scriptual verses, topic progression, halachic status, etc. However, there is an astonishing correlation between the sequence of tractates and number of chapters per tractate. In orders Moed, Nashim, Nezikin*, Kodshim and Taharos there is a perfect descending sequence based on chapter numbers. Zeraim is the only order that does not go in descending order, and even there it is only a three-tractate-sequence in the middle that does not follow the descending order.
While I have seen scholars mention this as a theory for the sequence of tractates in each order (e.g. here p. 8 and here p. xl) I have not found this idea in Rabbinic Literature.
The question is: Did the rishonim/acharonim simply not pick up on this pattern? Did they realize it but didn't care, preferring to give Torah-based explanations? Did they consider the couple of exceptions as refutations to the theory? Or are there actually sources in Rabbinic Literature that note this phenomenon?
A potential nafka minah of whether this is the true reason for the ordering would be whether there is any value to studying the tractates in the order they appear.
(This is in some ways the reverse of this question.)
Below is the sequence of tractates (according to Rambam) showing the number of chapters.
Zeraim
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Moed
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Nashim
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Nezikin
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Kodshim
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Taharos
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*Counting the three Bavas as one tractate and Sanhedrin/Makkos as one tractate (although Rambam disagrees that Sanhedrin/Makkos is one tractate, it is still clear why Makkos has to immediately follow Sanhedrin) and not counting the sixth chapter of Avos and the fourth chapter of Bikkurim because they are beraisaic addenda that Rambam does not have.
The pattern is especially obvious when reading from a Mishnah manuscript such as this one, which at the end of each order lists the tractate name with number of perakim in order.
Answer
R. Reuven Margoliot in his work Yesod Hamishnah V'arichata (p. 26) does in fact explain the sequence of tractates based on size by number of chapters.
אולם המתבונן ימצא בכל סדר משנה סדר מלאכותי כי מה דאפשי מפרש ברישא [נדרים כ' ע"א] שהקדים רבי בכל סדר המסכתות הכוללות פרקים יותר לפני המסכתות הקטנות
However, one who contemplates will find in each mishnaic order a practical order, that that which is larger is explained first [Nedarim 20a], for in each order Rebbe placed the tractates with more chapters before the small tractates.
He goes on to speak about this at length and shows how this is the case in each order. However, this is still a pretty recent source as Rabbinic Literature goes (published within the last 100 years) and he does not attribute the idea to any earlier source, nor does he discuss why no earlier sources mentioned this.
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